Corbyn will win the leadership race. Face it.
There are now less than two weeks to go until the results of the 2016 Labour leadership election are announced, and despite Labour moderates having being preparing for this ever since Corbyn was first elected, it looks like he’s going to win again.
In the most recent poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times at the end of August, Corbyn received the support of 62% of those polled, 62% of affiliated supporters and a massive 74% of registered supporters. Crucially though, in the same poll Corbyn received the support of 57% or ordinary Labour Party members. These are the votes that Smith was hoping gave him a chance. Without them, his chances are nil.
There has been little enough polling done on the subject, but across all the other polls, the only times Smith has won is in the polls of UK residents, and once a poll of Labour Councillors. Now this might well vindicate Smith as a unifying figure. And might justify Smiths claim to be the only candidate who can hope to win in a general election (especially with the Conservatives so far ahead in the polls), but neither of these two things matter. Who gets the most votes from Labour party members is what matters, and that’s going to be Corbyn.
To add to this, this time around 242 Constituency Labour Parties backed Corbyn. That’s up significantly from the 152 which backed him in 2015, and compares to a paltry 45 for Smith.
Pollsters may have been taking flak recently. But for once I think they’ll be right.
It looks like Comrade Corbyn is here to stay…